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Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evidence
Kos, Jiří ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This thesis studies the relationship between house prices, economic fundamen- tals and uncertainty using panel data from 10 OECD member countries and time series data from the United States. Traditional techniques, such as coin- tegration testing, are used to find a possible long-run link between house prices and their determinants. Employing both single-equation ARDL and multi- equation VEC models, we find evidence of a possible long-run relationship between house prices and fundamentals in the panel data. The results from the time series analysis are inconclusive, mostly leaning towards no presence of cointegration. A measure of interest rate is a vital determinant in most mod- els., while income does not exhibit a long-run connection with house prices. Moreover, results indicate the importance of uncertainty in determining house price dynamics, exhibiting both negative and positive effects. JEL Classification C22, D80, R20, R21, R28, R30, Keywords house prices, uncertainty, cointegration, eco- nomic fundamentals, interest rate Title Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evi- dence
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The housing bubble in China
Ba, Lei ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Language: English Title: The Housing Bubble in China Abstract: This paper studies the housing price boom in recent decade since 2003 in China. The study focuses on four municipalities of China, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. Despite the fact that the whole country is suffering a sky soaring housing boom, this paper reveals a regional difference between two types of big cities. Better developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing greater volatility in the boom and economic fundamentals have less explanatory power to the price increases. Oppositely, less developed cities such as Tianjin and Chongqing have relatively sustainable housing prices which are better supported by economic fundamentals. Finally, this paper concludes that Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a bubble in the housing prices, if the public expectation on economic growth cannot maintain, the bubble will burst.
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The housing bubble in China
Ba, Lei ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Language: English Title: The Housing Bubble in China Abstract: This paper studies the housing price boom in recent decade since 2003 in China. The study focuses on four municipalities of China, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. Despite the fact that the whole country is suffering a sky soaring housing boom, this paper reveals a regional difference between two types of big cities. Better developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing greater volatility in the boom and economic fundamentals have less explanatory power to the price increases. Oppositely, less developed cities such as Tianjin and Chongqing have relatively sustainable housing prices which are better supported by economic fundamentals. Finally, this paper concludes that Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a bubble in the housing prices, if the public expectation on economic growth cannot maintain, the bubble will burst.
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